"Musharraf Amerikaning Pokistondagi so'nggi umidi bo'lishi mumkin, va agar u muvaffaqiyatsizlikka uchrasa, fundamentalistlar Islom bombasini qo'lga kiritadi." — Entoni Zinni Lal Masjid talabalari va Pokistон armiyasi o'rtasidagi janglarning kuchayishi yuzlab o'liklar va ko'plab yaralanganlarga sabab bo'ldi. Bu Prezident Musharrafni quyidagi provokatsion bayonot berishga undadi: "Agar ular taslim bo'lmasalar, shuni bugun aytaman: ular o'ldiriladi. Ular bizni kuch ishlatishga majbur qilmasligi kerak. Ular o'z ixtiyori bilan chiqishlari kerak, aks holda ular o'ldiriladi..." Musharrafning ultimatumidan oldin ham, uning hukumati butun joriy inqirozning aybini darhol Abdul Rashid G'ozi — diniy maktab rahbari zimmasiga yuklashga shoshildi. Biroq, to'qnashuvdan oldingi voqealarni diqqat bilan tahlil qilish shuni ko'rsatadiki, butun voqea Pokiston hukumati tomonidan uyushtirilgan.

"Musharraf may be America's last hope in Pakistan, and if he fails, the fundamentalists would get hold of the Islamic bomb." -- Anthony Zinni The intensification of fighting between the students of Lal Masjid and the Pakistani army has left hundreds dead and many injured. This has prompted President Musharraf to issue the following provocative statement: “If they do not surrender so I am saying here today that they will be killed. They should not force us to use force. They should come out voluntarily; otherwise they will be killed…” Even before Musharraf’ s ultimatum, his government was swift to attribute the entire blame for the current crisis on Abdul Rashid Ghazi—the principal of the seminary. However, a close examination of the events preceding the standoff, suggests that the entire saga has been engineered by the Pakistani government.

So'nggi olti oy davomida Musharraf hukumati talabalarning o'z hokimiyatiga qarshi chiqqan har bir holatiga toqat qildi. Noqonuniy qurollarning to'planishi, Pokiston ijtimoiy arboblarining va politsiyachilarning o'g'irlanishi hamda olti nafar xitoylik ayolning asir olinishi hukumat rasmiylari tomonidan kuchsiz tanqid bilan kutib olindi. Bundan tashqari, bu harakatlar yashirin emas edi: ular Lol Masjid hududiga yaqin joylashgan ISI shtab-kvartirasi ko'z o'ngida rejalashtirilib, amalga oshirildi. ISI rasmiylari va hukumat vakillarining tez-tez tashrif buyurishi hukumatning do'stona yechim izlayotgani haqidagi da'volarini inkor etadi, ayniqsa Pokistonning qabilaviy agentliklarda va Balujistonning boshqa joylarida shunga o'xshash voqealarga bergan keskin javobi bilan solishtirilganda. Shunday ekan, nega Pokiston hukumati Masjidni keng ko'lamli hujumga yaroqli harbiy texnika bilan o'rab olishni shunchalik uzoq kechiktirdi?

For the past six months the Musharraf government has tolerated the behaviour of the students whenever they chose to challenge its writ. The accumulation of illegal arms, the abduction of Pakistani socialites and policemen, and the seizure of six Chinese women was met with muted criticism from government officials. Furthermore, these activities were not clandestine, and were planned and executed in full view of ISI’ s headquarters located in close proximity to the confines of the Lal Masjid. The frequent visit of ISI officials and government representatives negates government claims that it was exploring an amicable outcome— especially when measured against the ferocity of the Pakistani government’ s response to similar incidents in tribal agencies and elsewhere in Baluchistan. So why has the Pakistani government waited so long to barricade the Masjid with military hardware fit for an overwhelming assault.

Ushbu savolga faqat Musharraf hukumatining oldida turgan keng qamrovli muammolar kontekstida javob berish mumkin. Hozirda Musharraf hukumati ham dunyoviy muxolifat, ham uni ag‘darishni talab qilayotgan islomiy kuchlar bilan kurashishga majbur bo‘lmoqda.

This question can only be answered in the broader context of the challenges facing Musharraf’ s rule. At present the Musharraf government has had to contend with both the secular opposition and Islamic forces calling for his removal.

ARD (Demokratiyani tiklash uchun ittifoq) va Bosh sudya Iftixor boshchiligidagi dunyoviy kuchlar kuchayib, Amerikaning Musharrafni qayta saylash rejasini izdan chiqarmoqda. Bu xavfni bartaraf etish uchun Musharraf AQSh homiyligida dunyoviy muxolifatning ayrim yetakchilari bilan yashirin muzokaralar olib bormoqda, boshqalariga esa kuch ishlatmoqda. Karachidagi o'limlar aynan ikkinchi yondashuvning natijasidir. Muzokaralarga kelsak, AQSh Musharraf nomidan Benazir Bhutto bilan ilg'or muzokaralar olib bormoqda, maqsadi dunyoviy muxolifatni barbod qilish va Musharrafga ikkinchi prezidentlik muddatini ta'minlashdir. Bu, shuningdek, Bhuttoning Londonda bo'lib o'tadigan Barcha partiyalar konferensiyasi (APC) borasidagi so'nggi noaniq pozitsiyasini ham tushuntiradi; u hozirgacha bu konferensiyadan chetda turib kelmoqda.

The secular forces championed by the Alliance for the Restoration of Democracy (ARD) and Chief Justice Iftikhar have gained momentum and have frustrated America’ s initiative to get Musharraf re-elected. To diffuse this threat, Musharraf under US auspices has held secret talks with certain leaders of the secular opposition and has deployed force against others. The deaths in Karachi are a manifestation of the latter approach. As far as negotiations are concerned, the US on Musharraf’ s behalf is already engaged in advanced talks with Benazir Bhutto with aim to break the back of the secular opposition and secure a second presidential term for Musharraf. This also explains Bhutto’ s recent ambiguous stance on the All Parties Conference (APC) in Londonxv, which she has shunned so far.

Musharraf ning Amerikaning pro-amerikacha siyosatidan va neoliberal qarashlaridan norozi bo‘lgan islomiy muxolifat uni hokimiyatdan ag‘darishni o‘z zimmalariga olgan. Ba’zilari qurolli kurashga o‘tgan, boshqalari esa g‘azablarini chiqarish uchun namoyishlar o‘tkazgan. Ammo ularning noroziligining asosiy manbai Amerika sekulyarizatsiya qilish yoki yopish uchun belgilagan diniy madrasalardir. Amerika kelishuv tuzishga va muzokaralar olib borishga intilgan seküler muxolifatdan farqli o‘laroq, Amerika siyosatchilarining nazarida islomiy kuchlar qurol kuchi bilan sekulyarlashtirilishi kerak, har qanday qarshilik esa bostirilishi lozim. Shu sababli harbiylarning martial law joriy etilmagan holda Lol masjid atrofini o‘rab olishi, Abdul Aziz G‘oziyning Pokiston televideniyesida tahqirlanishi, muzokaralarning keskin bekor qilinishi, axborot blokadasi va inqirozning yechimi sifatida “taslim bo‘l yoki o‘l” degan e’lon ko‘rsatilgani Pokistondagi diniy madrasalarning kelajagi uchun xavfli alomatdir.

Whilst the Islamic opposition unhappy with Musharraf’ s pro- American policies and his neo-liberal attitudes have taken upon themselves to oust him from power. Some have resorted to militancy and others have engaged in protests to vent their anger. But the wellspring of their resentment is fuelled by the religious seminaries which America has identified for secularisation or closure. Unlike the secular opposition—where America was keen to compromise and broker a deal— the Islamic forces in the eyes of American policy makers must be secularised at gun point, and any resistance must be crushed. Hence the surrounding of Lal Masjid by the military in the absence of martial law, the humiliation of Abdul Aziz Ghazi on Pakistan television, the abrupt cancellation of talks, the media blackout and the announcement of ‘surrender or die’ as a solution to the crisis is an ominous sign for the future of religious seminaries in Pakistan.

Lal Masjid'da yuz bergan voqealar Musharraf uchun boshqa diniy maktab va muassasalar bilan shu tarzda muomala qilish uchun andoza bo'lib qolishi, ya'ni fuqarolar urushiga olib keladigan retsept bo'lishi ehtimoli bor. Bundan tashqari, inqirozning vaqti Musharrafga qulay, chunki u jamoatchilik e'tiborini dunyoviy muxolifatdan va hukumatning Baluchistondagi suv toshqinlariga nisbatan halokatli munosabatidan chalg'itadi.

What transpired at Lal Masjid has all the hallmarks of becoming a template for Musharraf to deal with other religious schools and institutions— a recipe for civil war. Not to mention that the timing of the crisis suits Musharraf, as it deflects the public’ s attention away from the secular opposition and the government’ s disastrous response to the floods in Baluchistan.

Aniq ko'rinib turibdiki, hukumatning dunyoviy va islomiy kuchlarga qarshi kuch ishlatishi Musharrafning "ma'rifiy mo'tadillik" shiorining fikriy tanazzulga uchraganini fosh etadi. Opozitsiya g'oyalariga qarshi fikr bilan kurashish o'rniga, Musharraf kuchga murojaat qildi. Xuddi shu usulni Musharrafning ittifoqchilari — Amerika, NATO va Isroil — "qalblar va onglar uchun kurash" niqobi ostida takrorladi, ammo ular Iroq, Afg'oniston va Falastindagi islomiy harakatlarni bostirishga muvaffaq bo'lolmadi. Unda Musharrafning qanday imkoniyati bor?

What is evident is that the utilisation of force by the government to deal with both secular and Islamic forces exposes the intellectual bankruptcy of Musharraf’ s mantra of enlightened moderation. Instead of employing thoughts to battle the ideas of the opposition, Musharraf has resorted to force. The same method has been repeated by Musharraf’ s allies—America, NATO and Israel— under the guise of ‘battle of hearts and minds’ and both have failed to crush the Islamic movements in Iraq, Afghanistan and Palestine. So what chance does Musharraf have?

2007-yil 9-iyul

July 9, 2007