“65% istaydilar barcha islom mamlakatlarini yagona islom davlati yoki Xalifalikka birlashtirishni.” — WorldPublicOpinion.org Yaqinda Prezident Bush o‘zining global terrorizmga qarshi urushi doirasida uzoq kutilgan “Katta Yaqin Sharq tashabbusi”ni e’lon qildi. Rejaning maqsadi mintaqadagi mavjud dunyoviy tartibni erkinlik va demokratiyani targ‘ib qilish orqali saqlab qolish edi. Ammo bugungi Yaqin Sharq jamiyatlarida Bushning tashabbusi aksincha natija bermoqda. Mintaqadagi islomchilar so‘nggi saylovlarda misli ko‘rilmagan yutuqlarga erishdilar va endi Amerika homiyligida gullab-yashnayotgan diktatura va monarxiyalarga bevosita tahdid solmoqdalar.

“65% want to unify all Islamic counties into a single Islamic state or Caliphate.” -- WorldPublicOpinion.org Not so long ago, President Bush announced his much coveted Greater Middle East Initiative as part of his global war on terrorism. The aim of the plan was to preserve the existing secular order across the region through the promotion of freedom and democracy. But in today’ s Middle Eastern societies, Bush’ s initiative is having just the opposite effect. Islamists throughout the region have shown unprecedented gains in recent elections and now pose a direct challenge to the dictatorships and monarchies that thrive under American patronage.

2005-yilda Misrda o‘tkazilgan parlament saylovlarida Musulmon birodarlar (Muslim Brotherhood) o‘rinlarning 20%xxii qismini qo‘lga kiritdi. Agar Mubarak rejimi ikkinchi va uchinchi tur saylovlarida qo‘rqitish usullariga murojaat qilmaganida, bu ko‘rsatkich ancha yuqori bo‘lardi. Rejimning islomchilarni bostirish uchun qo‘llagan shafqatsiz choralariga qaramay, Musulmon birodarlar “Islom – yechim” shiorini ilgari surdi va Misr saylovchilari orasida dunyoviy raqiblariga qaraganda ko‘proq qo‘llab-quvvatlash topdi. 2005-yilgi Iroq parlament saylovlarida diniy partiyalar Iroq ovozlarining asosiy qismini oldi. Iroq Vakillar kengashining 275 o‘rnidan shia ustunlik qilgan Birlashgan Iroq ittifoqi 128 o‘rinni qo‘lga kiritdi. Ittifoqqa Bosh vazir Ibrohim al-Ja‘feri boshchiligidagi Da‘va partiyasi va Abdul Aziz al-Hakim boshchiligidagi Iroqdagi Islom inqilobi oliy kengashi kiradi. Ittifoq mutlaq ko‘pchilikni tashkil etishga 10 ovoz yetishmadi. Sunniy fundamentalistlar – Iroq kelishuv fronti 44 o‘rinni, kurd islomchilari esa 5 o‘rinni egallashdi.

During Egypt’ s parliamentary elections in 2005, the Muslim Brotherhood secured 20%xxii of the seats. Had not Mubarak’ s regime resorted to intimidation in the second and third rounds of the balloting, the figure would have been much higher. But despite the regimes brutal tactics to suppress the Islamists, the Muslim Brotherhood employed the slogan ‘Islam is the solution’ and outperformed secular rivals in garnering greater support amongst Egypt’ s electorate. In the Iraqi parliamentary elections of 2005, the religious parties took the bulk of the Iraqi votes. Of 275 seats in the Council of Representatives, the Shia dominated United Iraqi Alliance won 128 seats. The alliance includes the Dawa Party led by Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari and the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, led by Abdul Aziz al-Hakim. The alliance fell 10 votes short of an absolute majority. The Sunni fundamentalists of the Iraqi Accord Front secured 44 seats, while Kurdish Islamists took 5

...o'rinlar. Amerika va uning ittifoqchilari saylov jarayoniga bevosita aralashmaganida, islomchilarning ovozlari kuchi sekulyarchilarni butunlay chetga surib qo'yardi. Har holda, Iroq Vakillar Kengashida diniy yo'nalishi kuchli bo'lgan vakillar ustunlik qiladi va ular ochiqdan-ochiq dunyoviy deb hisoblagan siyosatni rad etishlari kutilmoqda. 2006-yil 25-yanvarga belgilangan Falastin saylovlarining natijasi, ehtimol, Misr va Iroqdagi saylov natijalarini takrorlaydi.

seats. Had not America and her surrogates interfered directly in the electoral process, the strength of the Islamists’ vote would have completely marginalized the secularists. In any case, the Iraqi Council of Representatives will be dominated by representatives who have a strong religious disposition and are expected to throw out policies which they deem to be overtly secular. The outcome of the Palestinian election scheduled for January 25 2006 will probably mimic the election results of Egypt and Iraq.

Allaqachon so'rovchilar Hamasning kuchli natija ko'rsatishini bashorat qilmoqda. Hamas Isroilga qarshi keskin kayfiyatda bo'lib, uning yo'q qilinishiga ant ichgan.

Already pollsters are predicting a strong showing for Hamas which is avidly anti-Israeli and has vowed its destruction.

Hamas 62 ta nomzod ko‘rsatgani bilan Falastin Qonunchilik kengashidagi 132 o‘rindan uchdan bir qismidan ko‘prog‘ini egallashi prognoz qilinmoqda. Isroilning tashkilotni saylovda qatnashishdan chetlatish bilan tahdid qilishi va Amerikaning uning qat’iy pozitsiyasiga noroziligi guruhning mashhurligini oshirdi. Fatahdan tashqari, boshqa dunyoviy partiyalar Hamas va boshqa islomchilarning o‘sib borayotgan ta’siriga samarali qarshilik ko‘rsata olmaydi. Ichki nizolar bilan band bo‘lgan va keng jamoatchilik tomonidan korrupsiyada ayblanayotgan Fatah asosiy yutqazuvchi bo‘ladi.

Hamas fielding 62 candidates is projected to take more than a third of the 132 seats available in the Palestinian Legislative Council. Threats from Israel to preclude the organisation from contesting the election and America’ s dislike of its hard-line stance have boosted the group’ s popularity. Apart from Fatah, the other secular party’ s cannot mount an effective challenge to the growing influence of Hamas and other Islamists. Fatah reeling from internal schisms and widely viewed as being corrupt will be the main looser.

Islomchilarning saylovlarda sekulyarchilardan ustun kelishi naqshi arab dunyosining boshqa mamlakatlarida ham takrorlanmoqda. Masalan, o'tgan yili Saudiya Arabistonidagi shahar kengashi saylovlarida islomchilar Riyadda 7 o'rindan 6 tasini qo'lga kiritdilar, Jiddada va Makkada esa saylovlarda g'alaba qozondilar. Sunniy islomchilar qo'llab-quvvatlagan nomzodlar Sharqiy viloyatdagi bir qator shaharlarning shahar kengashlarini ham nazoratga oldilar. 2003 yilda Yamanda bo'lib o'tgan parlament saylovlarida islomchi va qabilaviy unsurlarning birlashmasi bo'lgan Yamanlik Isloh guruhi (Islah) 301 o'rindan 46 tasini qo'lga kiritib, hozir muxolifatni tashkil etadi. O'sha yili Quvaytning parlamentidagi 50 o'rindan 17 tasini islomchilar birgalikda qo'lga kiritdilar; ular parlamentda hukmron mafkuraviy blokni tashkil etadi. Iordaniya, Bahrayn va Marokashda ham islomchilar ko'pincha sekulyarchilar hisobiga yutuqlarga erishmoqdalar.xxiii

The pattern of Islamists outshining secularists in elections is being repeated elsewhere in the Arab world. For instance in the Saudi municipal elections last year, Islamists won 6 of the 7 seats in Riyadh and swept the elections in Jeddah and Makkah. Candidates backed by Sunni Islamists also won control of the municipal councils in a number of towns in the Eastern Province. In the 2003 parliamentary election in Yemen, the Yemeni Reform Group (Islah), a combination of Islamist and tribal elements, won 46 of the 301 seats and now forms the opposition. That year, Islamists combined to win 17 of the 50 seats in the Kuwaiti parliament, where they form the dominant ideological bloc. In Jordan, Bahrain and Morocco too, Islamists have made gains often at the expense of secularistsxxiii.

Islomchilarning hamma joyda uchrashi va dunyoviylarning tez zaiflashishi arab dunyosining siyosiy manzarasini o‘zgartirib yubordi. Dastlabki belgilar bu o‘zgarishning doimiy bo‘lib qolishini ko‘rsatmoqda. 2004-yilgi Zogby International–Sadat Chair so‘rovnomasiga ko‘ra, Iordaniya, Saudiya Arabistoni va BAAdа so‘ralganlarning ko‘pchiligi ruhoniylar o‘z siyosiy tizimlarida kattaroq rol o‘ynashi kerak, deb bildirgan.

The ubiquitous presence of Islamists and the rapid decline of the secularists have altered the political landscape of the Arab world. Early indications suggest that this transformation is going to be permanent. According to the 2004 Zogby International-Sadat Chair poll, of those surveyed in Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE said the clergy should play a greater role in their political systems.

Misrga so'ralganlarning ellik foizi ruhoniylar siyosiy tizimni belgilab bermasligi kerak, deb javob berdi, ammo qariyb qirq yetti foiz ularning rolini kengroq bo'lishini qo'llab-quvvatladi. Demak, siyosiy tendensiya aniq: arab dunyosi qanchalik demokratlashsa, islomchilarning hokimiyatga kelish ehtimoli shunchalik ortadi.xxiv

Fifty percent of Egyptians polled said the clerics should not dictate the political system, but as many as 47 percent supported a greater role for them. So the political trend is clear; more democratic the Arab world gets, the more likely it is that Islamists will come to powerxxiv.

Bushning Yaqin Sharqdagi demokratiya tashabbusi siyosiy islomni kuchaytirib qo‘ydi, shu bilan birga, kundan-kunga zo‘ravonlashib borayotgan harbiy islom to‘lqinining oldini olishda ham muvaffaqiyatsizlikka uchradi.

Not only has Bush’ s democracy drive in the Middle East strengthened political Islam it has also failed to stymie the tide of militant Islam which grows more violent by the day.

2005 yilning aprel oyida AQSh Davlat departamenti xalqaro terrorizm haqidagi yillik hisobotni nashr etishni to'xtatishga qaror qildi. Bunga sabab, hukumatning eng yirik terrorizmga qarshi markazi 2004 yilda 1985 yildan, ya'ni nashr qilina boshlangan birinchi yildan beri istalgan yilga qaraganda ko'proq terrorchilik hujumlari sodir etilgan, degan xulosaga kelgani bo'ldi. Bu tashabbusning yana bir qurboni yurak va ongni qozonish uchun olib borilgan kurash bo'ldi. 2005 yilgi Zogbi so'rovnomasiga ko'ra, arab davlatlarida Amerikaga nisbatan salbiy qarash bildirganlar ulushi quyidagicha edi: Iordaniyada 63%, Misrda 85%, Saudiya Arabistonida 89%, Livanda 66%, Birlashgan Arab Amirliklarida esa 69%.

In April 2005, the US State Department decided to stop publishing an annual report on international terrorism after the government's top terrorism centre concluded that there were more terrorist attacks in 2004 than in any year since 1985, the first year the publication covered. Another casualty of this initiative has been the battle of hearts and minds. According to the 2005 Zogby poll on Arab attitudes towards America, 63% of Jordanians, 85 % of Egyptians, 89% of Saudis, 66% of Lebanese, and 69% of the people in UAE had an unfavourable opinion of America.

Bushning Yaqin Sharqda demokratiyani rivojlantirish rejasining barbod bo‘lishi vatandagi siyosatchilarning e’tiboridan chetda qolmadi. Bush rejasini qo‘llab-quvvatlovchilar bilan uning tanqidchilari o‘rtasida keskin bahs boshlandi. Rejaning muxoliflari Bushning Yaqin Sharqdagi demokratiya tashabbusi doirasida islomchilarni chetlatib, mo‘tadil kuchlarni qo‘llab-quvvatlash uchun yetarlicha harakat qilmayotganini ta’kidlaydilar. Ular, ayniqsa, Amerikaga qarshi qattiq kayfiyatdagi islomchilarga ishonish mumkin emasligini va ularni demokratiya tajribasidan chetda qoldirish kerakligini ham ta’kidlaydilar. Ularning qarashi shunga asoslanganki, musulmon dunyosining G‘arb qadriyatlarini qabul qilmasligi islom mafkurasida bo‘lib, Arab dunyosi G‘arb tomonidan qabul qilinishidan oldin islomiy matnlar tubdan o‘zgarishi kerak, deb hisoblaydilar.

The collapse of Bush’ s plan to advance democracy in the Middle East has not escaped the attention of policy makers back home. A bitter dispute has broken out between supporters of Bush and the critics of his plan. The opponents of his plan argue that Bush is not doing enough to isolate the Islamists and promote the moderates as part of the democracy push in the Middle East. They also maintain that Islamists, especially those that are vociferously anti- American cannot be trusted and must be excluded from the democracy experiment. Their view is based on the idea that the refusal of the Muslim world to accept western values lies with the ideology of Islam. In their opinion the Islamic texts have to fundamentally change before the Arab world can be accepted by the West.

Boshqa tomondan, tarafdorlar yanada pragmatik yondashuvni ilgari suradilar. Ularning fikricha, islomchilarni demokratik jarayonga jalb qilish orqali arab dunyosini G'arb qadriyatlarini qabul qiladigan, Amerikaga nisbatan ancha kam dushman bo'lgan va Amerika gegemoniyasini ixtiyoriy ravishda qabul qiladigan mintaqaga aylantirish mumkin. Ularning e'tiqodi shunga asoslanadiki, islomchilarni demokratik jarayondan chetda qoldirish faqat G'arbga nisbatan nafrat va zo'ravonlikni kuchaytiradi. Ular Turkiyani arab dunyosi ergashishi uchun ideal namuna sifatida keltiradilar. Bu qarashning asosiy tarafdori neokonservativ Marc Gerecht bo'lib, u yaqinda "Diniy demokratiyalar" nomli maqolasida musulmon dunyosidagi o'zini o'zi boshqarish diniy tarkibiy qismga ega bo'lishini va G'arb bu hodisadan qo'rqmasligi kerakligini ta'kidlagan.

The supporters on the other hand advocate a more pragmatic approach. They believe that by co-opting Islamists in the democratic process, the Arab world can be moulded into a region that accepts western values, is substantially less anti-American and willingly accepts American hegemony. Their belief rests on the premise that by keeping Islamists out of the democratic process will only breed resentment and violence against the West. They cite Turkey as the ideal model for the Arab world to follow. A major proponent of this view is the neoconservative Marc Gerecht who recently argued in an article entitled ‘Devout Democracies’ that self rule in the Muslim world will have a religious component and the West should not be afraid of this phenomena.

Qaysi ikki qarashdan biri Amerikaning Yaqin Sharqdagi demokratiya tajribasiga rahbarlik qilishiga qaramay, u siyosiy islomning yuksalishini to'xtatishda deyarli sezilarli ta'sir ko'rsatmaydi. Buning sababi shundaki, Yaqin Sharq xalqi Amerikaning Isroilni shartsiz qo'llab-quvvatlashini, dahshatli arab diktaturalariga qat'iy ko'magini, ularning tabiiy boyliklarini talon-taroj qilishini, kapitalistik yechimlar va qadriyatlarni majburan joriy etishini hamda Iroq xalqi va boshqa musulmonlarga qarshi urush olib borish uchun qilgan sa'y-harakatlarini hech qachon unutmaydi va kechirmaydi.

Whichever of the two views succeeds in guiding America’ s democracy experiment in the Middle East, it will have a negligible impact on curbing the rise of political Islam. This is because the people of the Middle East will never forget or forgive America’ s unstinting support for Israel, her unflinching support for the brutal Arab dictatorships, her exploitation of their natural resources, her imposition of capitalist solutions and values, and her determined efforts to wage wars against the people of Iraq and other Muslims.

Bu og'riqli haqiqatlar arablarning ongida abadiy o'chmas iz qoldirgan va arab xalqini doimiy ravishda siyosiy Islomda taskin izlashga undaydi.

These painful realities are permanently etched on the minds of the Arabs and continuously urge the Arab populace to seek solace in political Islam.

Yaqin Sharq Islom dunyosining yuragi bo'lib, hozir siyosiy islom bilan to'lib-toshmoqda, bu esa muqarrar ravishda Xilofatning qayta tiklanishiga olib keladi. Demokratiyani targ'ib qilish yoki uni joriy etishdan voz kechish, islomiy matnlarni dunyoviy talqinlar bilan almashtirish, islomchilarni yakkalab qo'yish va mo''tadillarni rag'batlantirish, rejimlarni yo'q qilish va ularning o'rniga AQShga bo'ysunuvchi vakillarni qo'yish natijani o'zgartirmaydi. Amerikaning arablar bilan o'tmishdagi munosabatlari uning bugungi arablar bilan taqdirini belgilab qo'ydi. AQSh siyosatchilari kelajak haqida o'ylash vaqti keldi: AQSh Xilofat bilan qanday turdagi munosabatlarni xohlaydi?

The Middle East is the heart of the Islamic world and right now it is pulsating with political Islam that will inevitably lead to the re-emergence of the Caliphate. Promoting democracy or eschewing its implementation, substituting Islamic texts with secular interpretations, isolating Islamists and encouraging moderates, destroying regimes and replacing them with compliant US surrogates is not going to change the outcome. America’ s past relations with the Arabs has sealed her fate with the present Arabs. The time has come for US policy makers to think about the future – what type of relations does the US want with the Caliphate?

2006-yil 23-yanvar

January 23, 2006